The Case for Hidden Figures to Win the Best Picture Oscar

So, here's the thing. The Oscars, the pinnacle of the year in Los Angeles, is next Sunday. (You may've heard.) And La La Land is going to win Best Picture. You may've heard that also. In fact, it's statistically impossible for it to lose. It walks into the Oscars with a record-setting 14 nominations. It has swept nearly every guild award, won the most Golden Globes ever, won the BAFTAs recently. Won the DGA, won the PGA. Only didn't win the SAG because it has two people in its main cast, and the Screen Actors Guild Awards are about Best Ensemble. (Two people don't make up an Ensemble.)

La La Land is on track (statistically) to win, and win BIG, on Sunday. Mind you, the most it could POSSIBLY win is 13, since it has two Best Songs nominated. ("City of Stars" is winning that one.) But it's been a LONG time since any film has had a big sweep like that. The most it can really hope for, by most estimates is, maybe six, maybe seven awards. (Picture, Director, Song, Score, Film Editing for sure; maybe Screenplay, maybe Actress) Still, six/seven Oscars for La La Land would be pretty amazing. And, like I said, that is what everyone expects to happen.

And, for those not in this business we call show, let me explain. The reason why La La Land is sweeping up every award in sight isn't just that it's a great film. So is Moonlight and Manchester and Hell or High Water and Lion and Arrival. But, La La Land strikes to the heart of every creative in this town. Every single person who stumbled into Los Angeles with a dream in their heart, and waited tables and did whatever to make that dream come true. And, really, that's pretty much all of us. That's why it's going to win.

Well, plus, it's pretty and fun, and who doesn't love a musical? And all those loving shots of our fair city... they just make a person swoon. So, it's all wrapped up, with a brightly colored bow. La La Land, FTW. Right?

Let's look back for a moment to the year 2005, the year everyone was convinced that Brokeback Mountain was going to win, and then, somehow, from nowhere, it was Crash instead. I would argue that of the five wonderful nominees that year (including Capote, Munich and Good Night, and Good Luck.), Crash was the most LA of the bunch. But it was also something else.

Crash really captured the zeitgeist of the moment. Captured exactly where we were at. Emotionally and spiritually.

For that reason, I am arguing now for this: Hidden Figures coming out of nowhere to win Best Picture. It hits on every deep controversy, beating at the working heart of LA: the #OscarsSoWhite controversy, the women not being paid enough or working in enough positions of power (still), the things we struggle with today. I have long argued that the Best Picture winner is the one that not only makes us feel good, but makes us feel good about ourselves. And BOY, would Hidden Figures winning score a lot of points in that regard.

Plus, there is also the "Hollywood likes to throw dirt at the frontrunners" thing. La La Land has been in the lead in this Oscar horserace for so long, it's ridiculous. And here comes Hidden Figures, from out of nowhere, fresh in Oscar voters' minds. Oscar voters who don't like being told what they are going to be voting for by every other awards show everywhere.

Hidden Figures, which is about women and minorities and women minorities working hard in the background and achieving big things. About dreaming big, impossible things and having them happen. Arguably a happier ending than the movie musical that's destined to win.

Still, La La Land is all about actors (and singers and jazz musicians), and has a big audition scene that will speak to every actor voting (the largest branch of the Academy voters). To say nothing of all those who followed their big break in Paris or with a fusion band, to leave their true love behind for fame and glory, that are just going to be sucked into voting for La La Land with all their heart.

Hidden Figures is a great movie, about real people that we didn't even know existed. From a time when America was great, and had big dreams of its own. (The moon!) But it is ultimately all about math, and statistically, La La Land can't lose. Hidden Figures doesn't even have an editing nom, for gosh sakes! and you HAVE to have that to win. But then again, a girl can dream...

Miche's Oscar Predix

BEST PICTURE
La La Land

SPOILER: Hidden Figures

BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

SPOILER: None

BEST ACTRESS
Isabelle Huppert, Elle

SPOILER: Emma Stone, La La Land

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

SPOILER: Dev Patel, Lion

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Fences

SPOILER: None

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Zootopia

SPOILER: Kubo and the Two Strings

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
La La Land

SPOILER: Lion

BEST COSTUMES
Jackie

SPOILER: La La Land

BEST DIRECTING
La La Land, Damien Chazelle

SPOILER: None

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
OJ: Made in America

SPOILER: 13th

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
The White Helmets

SPOILER: 4.1 Miles

BEST FILM EDITING
La La Land

SPOILER: None

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Salesman, Iran

SPOILER: Toni Erdmann

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Suicide Squad

SPOILER: Star Trek Beyond

BEST MUSIC (Original Score)
La La Land

SPOILER: Jackie

BEST MUSIC (Original Song)
La La Land, "City of Stars"

SPOILER: La La Land, "Audition"

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Hail, Caesar!

SPOILER: La La Land

BEST SHORT FILM (Animated)
Pearl

SPOILER: Not sure

BEST SHORT FILM (Live Action)
Sing

SPOILER: Not sure

BEST SOUND EDITING
Hacksaw Ridge

SPOILER: La La Land

BEST SOUND MIXING
La La Land

SPOILER: 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Jungle Book

SPOILER: Kubo and the Two Strings

BEST WRITING (Adapted Screenplay)
Moonlight

SPOILER: Hidden Figures

BEST WRITING (Original Screenplay)
Manchester by the Sea

SPOILER: Hell or High Water OR La La Land

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