The Case for Hidden Figures to Win the Best Picture Oscar

So, here's the thing. The Oscars, the pinnacle of the year in Los Angeles, is next Sunday. (You may've heard.) And La La Land is going to win Best Picture. You may've heard that also. In fact, it's statistically impossible for it to lose. It walks into the Oscars with a record-setting 14 nominations. It has swept nearly every guild award, won the most Golden Globes ever, won the BAFTAs recently. Won the DGA, won the PGA. Only didn't win the SAG because it has two people in its main cast, and the Screen Actors Guild Awards are about Best Ensemble. (Two people don't make up an Ensemble.)

La La Land is on track (statistically) to win, and win BIG, on Sunday. Mind you, the most it could POSSIBLY win is 13, since it has two Best Songs nominated. ("City of Stars" is winning that one.) But it's been a LONG time since any film has had a big sweep like that. The most it can really hope for, by most estimates is, maybe six, maybe seven awards. (Picture, Director, Song, Score, Film Editing for sure; maybe Screenplay, maybe Actress) Still, six/seven Oscars for La La Land would be pretty amazing. And, like I said, that is what everyone expects to happen.

And, for those not in this business we call show, let me explain. The reason why La La Land is sweeping up every award in sight isn't just that it's a great film. So is Moonlight and Manchester and Hell or High Water and Lion and Arrival. But, La La Land strikes to the heart of every creative in this town. Every single person who stumbled into Los Angeles with a dream in their heart, and waited tables and did whatever to make that dream come true. And, really, that's pretty much all of us. That's why it's going to win.

Well, plus, it's pretty and fun, and who doesn't love a musical? And all those loving shots of our fair city... they just make a person swoon. So, it's all wrapped up, with a brightly colored bow. La La Land, FTW. Right?

Let's look back for a moment to the year 2005, the year everyone was convinced that Brokeback Mountain was going to win, and then, somehow, from nowhere, it was Crash instead. I would argue that of the five wonderful nominees that year (including Capote, Munich and Good Night, and Good Luck.), Crash was the most LA of the bunch. But it was also something else.

Crash really captured the zeitgeist of the moment. Captured exactly where we were at. Emotionally and spiritually.

For that reason, I am arguing now for this: Hidden Figures coming out of nowhere to win Best Picture. It hits on every deep controversy, beating at the working heart of LA: the #OscarsSoWhite controversy, the women not being paid enough or working in enough positions of power (still), the things we struggle with today. I have long argued that the Best Picture winner is the one that not only makes us feel good, but makes us feel good about ourselves. And BOY, would Hidden Figures winning score a lot of points in that regard.

Plus, there is also the "Hollywood likes to throw dirt at the frontrunners" thing. La La Land has been in the lead in this Oscar horserace for so long, it's ridiculous. And here comes Hidden Figures, from out of nowhere, fresh in Oscar voters' minds. Oscar voters who don't like being told what they are going to be voting for by every other awards show everywhere.

Hidden Figures, which is about women and minorities and women minorities working hard in the background and achieving big things. About dreaming big, impossible things and having them happen. Arguably a happier ending than the movie musical that's destined to win.

Still, La La Land is all about actors (and singers and jazz musicians), and has a big audition scene that will speak to every actor voting (the largest branch of the Academy voters). To say nothing of all those who followed their big break in Paris or with a fusion band, to leave their true love behind for fame and glory, that are just going to be sucked into voting for La La Land with all their heart.

Hidden Figures is a great movie, about real people that we didn't even know existed. From a time when America was great, and had big dreams of its own. (The moon!) But it is ultimately all about math, and statistically, La La Land can't lose. Hidden Figures doesn't even have an editing nom, for gosh sakes! and you HAVE to have that to win. But then again, a girl can dream...

Miche's Oscar Predix

BEST PICTURE
La La Land

SPOILER: Hidden Figures

BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

SPOILER: None

BEST ACTRESS
Isabelle Huppert, Elle

SPOILER: Emma Stone, La La Land

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

SPOILER: Dev Patel, Lion

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Fences

SPOILER: None

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Zootopia

SPOILER: Kubo and the Two Strings

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
La La Land

SPOILER: Lion

BEST COSTUMES
Jackie

SPOILER: La La Land

BEST DIRECTING
La La Land, Damien Chazelle

SPOILER: None

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
OJ: Made in America

SPOILER: 13th

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
The White Helmets

SPOILER: 4.1 Miles

BEST FILM EDITING
La La Land

SPOILER: None

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Salesman, Iran

SPOILER: Toni Erdmann

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Suicide Squad

SPOILER: Star Trek Beyond

BEST MUSIC (Original Score)
La La Land

SPOILER: Jackie

BEST MUSIC (Original Song)
La La Land, "City of Stars"

SPOILER: La La Land, "Audition"

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Hail, Caesar!

SPOILER: La La Land

BEST SHORT FILM (Animated)
Pearl

SPOILER: Not sure

BEST SHORT FILM (Live Action)
Sing

SPOILER: Not sure

BEST SOUND EDITING
Hacksaw Ridge

SPOILER: La La Land

BEST SOUND MIXING
La La Land

SPOILER: 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Jungle Book

SPOILER: Kubo and the Two Strings

BEST WRITING (Adapted Screenplay)
Moonlight

SPOILER: Hidden Figures

BEST WRITING (Original Screenplay)
Manchester by the Sea

SPOILER: Hell or High Water OR La La Land

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Assessing the Oscar Race, On Finding a Hero to Root For

Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty. Courtesy of Sony Pictures Entertainment.

On paper, it seemed easy. Lauded female director had once again made a gritty movie about the military. It was an easy march to Best Director and Best Picture again. Then I saw it.

Zero Dark Thirty, my friends, is no Hurt Locker.

So I want to examine (mostly) these two: the one who should've been Best Picture and the one who is going to be Best Picture, with the others thrown in along the way, by comparison.

Here's my thesis. In awards shows, specifically Emmys and Oscars, the voters like to choose something to win which makes them feel good about themselves. This is why (aside from being top-notch drama) The West Wing won for so very many years.

I think personally (though I know many would argue with me) this is also why Shakespeare in Love beat the dreary, let's-go-find-one-man war saga Saving Private Ryan. Also why the love story Titanic beat the brutal LA Confidential. There has to be someone you can root for, and the quest sought has to be noble.

In Zero Dark Thirty, you have one obsessed woman who thinks of nothing but killing Osama Bin Laden. (Just think what a pain it would be to work with this woman!) And the movie is, in that premise, simplistic. The goal, from start to finish, is to kill Osama Bin Laden.

And, I'm not spoiling anything here. They get him. He's dead. And I feel nauseated.

The woman in question is surrounded by a group of guys who don't even really believe her, but they go in there anyway. So the story is: Ooops, we kinda killed him by accident. We didn't really believe he was there, but good on you, you did. Woo hoo.

It's depressing. It's bad enough that the reviled torture scenes were so vivid that I spent the entire first hour of the movie trying to talk myself into not walking out.

The final thought I was left with is: Is this who we are as Americans? Is this who we want to be?

Depressing and nauseating. And I would posit, why this is not winning the awards it should have, on paper.

The one winning everything along the way, and I would bet, is going to win this Sunday too, is Argo.

Say what you will about one too many Ben Affleck close-ups. The fact of the matter is, while both of these stories were hidden, and are now coming to light, this one is one you can root for.

Americans are in trouble! Americans go above and beyond to help other Americans to safety. Of course that's going to win! Who can't root for that? And it's got a Hollywood angle (Hollywood LOVES that.).

Let me briefly examine the other films.

I have not seen Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild and Django Unchained.

All I can say about them is this. Amour has a very uphill battle becoming a Best Picture winner, since it's in a foreign language. Life Is Beautiful could do it. I think Amour cannot. (It's also depressing.)

Django Unchained is a very divisive film. Many love it. Many hate it. Many hate it with a passion. It won't win. Just for how many times it (reportedly) uses the N word, it shouldn't win. Appalling.

Now to the others.

Miche's predicted winners: Hugh Jackman and Anne Hathaway in Les Miserables. Courtesy of Universal Pictures.

My favorite to win for a long time was Les Miserables. But I see now that it's really not clear what exactly they are fighting for. The play makes that final moment much more stirring than the movie does. For all intents and purposes, they have a scuffle in a street in which many boys die needlessly. (Which I guess is a metaphor for all war, but still...) Also, many people loved this movie. Many more hated it. Passionately. It won't win.

Les Miserables. Courtesy of Universal Pictures.

Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook. Courtesy of The Weinstein Company.

Silver Linings Playbook, when I walked out of it, had Oscars written all over it. I knew the two leads would be nominated. Suspected DeNiro would be. (Didn't see Jackie Weaver coming.) It's a feel-good movie where you can clearly root for someone.

However, what I can't get past with this movie: the Jennifer Lawrence character is supposedly suffering from sex addiction, yet she uses those very same love addiction/sex addiction tactics to win the Bradley Cooper character's heart, and is applauded for it? Um... She lies, his father lies... it's not behavior one can root for in good conscience. So, no Best Picture. No Best Screenplay. (And, for that matter, none of the actors are winning either.)

Daniel Day Lewis as Lincoln. Courtesy of Dreamworks/Twentieth Century Fox.

The odds-on favorite (before Argo started taking every prize) was Lincoln. What's not to love? A world-class director tackling an important time in history with our most beloved president. Visually, it was beautiful. The acting was amazing across the board.

You could argue that it highlighted our fight to rise to our better natures and rid our country of slavery. Well, yes. And that it reflected how Congress, despite its infighting, can once in a while actually get something done. Well, yes. But does it stir your soul? or, in retrospect make you feel like you just viewed a history lesson?

Right. It's not winning. In fact, I want to go on record saying that I don't think Spielberg is winning Best Director either.

Which brings us to, for my money, the only other possibility to win Sunday.

Life of Pi. I will go on record as saying I think Ang Lee is winning Best Director. It was a visually stunning movie. The book involves a guy on a boat with a tiger for days, and somehow, you get an incredibly interesting movie out of that. Bravo!

Courtesy of Fox 2000.

People have complained about the twist ending, whether it helps or hurts the story. I don't think it detracts from the story, I think it enriches it. It is a very spiritual movie, and that certainly helps its chances.

But compare these films (Life of Pi and Argo) in your mind. In one, you see a guy with a tiger (a sometimes CGI tiger) who survives. In the other, you see the police chasing the plane just as it's wheels-up. (A scene which didn't actually happen, according to those involved.)

Life of Pi. Courtesy of Fox 2000.

Still, one makes your heart race. The other makes you think, yeah, Nice movie.

It's Argo in a nose.

Clea Duvall, Ben Affleck, Tate Donovan, others in Argo. Courtesy of Warner Brothers. 

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